WHICH NEXT GEN PLAYER CAN BE NO. 1?

THE NEW GENERATION

The established trio of Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer are under threat. A talented group of Next Generation players are breathing down their necks each week, and the Next Gen players know that the big three can be beaten. 

But just who are the best Next Generation players around today? 

My picks for the best of these Next Gen players, and possible future world number 1s, include Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Denis Shapavolov. 

Other Next Gen players right behind them include Felix Auger-Aliasimme (20), Borna Coric (23), and Alex Rublev (23). They're all knocking at the door as well.

For me, Jannik Sinner, from Italy, at 19 years old, is also highly talented and is currently the youngest player in the top 100 (ranked 78). He has the game and temperament to go to #1 and stay there.

WHO CAN BE THE NEXT WORLD NUMBER 1?

My answer as to who will be the next world number 1 player from our list... none of them! Well, certainly not a long-term number 1 anyway.

Sure, one player from this group may take the top spot briefly, but I don't see any of them staying at number 1 for very long. 

The most successful players over the past decade have been Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer, who are all in their 30s now (Federer is now 39!), and there will most certainly be a transition happening in the rankings over the next few years involving one of our Next Gen players briefly take the top spot. But that's not really because they are genuine number 1 material; they will merely be in a caretaker role until another, genuine number 1 emerges. 

WHAT DO #1's LOOK LIKE?

None of the Next Gen players are true number 1 material.

Every great player that got to number one in the world and stayed there did so immediately; there was no development period. No period of working their way to the top. They came from nowhere and knocked the existing world's best male player off their throne immediately and stayed at number 1 for years. 

Djokovic was one player who took a little time to reach the top. But he had to dethrone two of the best players we have ever seen, and while they were both at their best! Djokovic also had medical issues early in his career, but once he took care of his gluten intolerance, he followed the same pattern as all the greatest players in the past and began to dominate the game. 

Remember Federer beating Sampras in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2001? At that time we didn't have much idea of who this young pony-tailed player from Switzerland was. Sampras was on a 31-match winning streak and was attempting to win his 8th Wimbledon Singles title. None of that mattered to Federer, who was 19 at the time. The greatest players to come along have all gone straight to the top, no matter who was there before them.

So what's holding the current Next Gen players back? Are any of the present Next Gen players going straight to the top? No, exactly. 

Sampras won his first Grand Slam Singles title at 19 (the 1990 US Open), and became one of the greats in our sport.

Borg won his first Grand Slam title at 20 and continued to break all prior tennis records.

In contrast, Thiem is 27 years old, Zverev is 23, Tsitsipas is 22 and Shapovalov is 21.

"I repeat, Champions don't develop; they burst on the scene from nowhere and stay there until the next genuine number 1 comes along, again, out of nowhere."

 

...AND ANOTHER THING

Another characteristic of the great players who have reigned at #1 for a long time is that they have had to contend with an existing tennis legend to get there. 

I mentioned Federer beating Sampras during Sampras's 31-match winning streak. Let's not also forget that Sampras had been almost unbeatable on his favourite grass surface at that time.

Bjorn Borg took over from Jimmy Connors who had been almost unbeatable until then. John McEnroe had taken Connors and Borg out of the picture by the early 1980s. At the same time, a young Nadal began dominating Federer until Djokovic did the same to him a few years later. Get the picture?

The great players arrive and assume the mantle of number 1 quickly. There's no development period needed.

Now, look at today's crop of Next Gen players. To reach the top, one of them has to unseat Djokovic, who is 33, Nadal, who is 34, and to a lesser extent, Federer, who is now 39. At the present time, we are hardly seeing dominant stuff from any of them.

Thiem's victory at the recent US Open was without Djokovic (who was defaulted), while Nadal and Federer were absent from the same event.

WHERE IS THE NEXT #1?

I'm certain that the next dominant number 1 in the world hasn't surfaced yet from the junior game. He will be out there but is still maturing as a person and player. He may not even be dominating junior tennis yet (many juniors who dominate in the junior ranks fail to do well on the men's tour), and instead, be quietly honing the attributes that will make him a future great.

"You can be sure he will add something new and extreme to the game." 

Borg brought increased topspin to tennis. Lendl introduced us to the power game and to higher levels of fitness. Federer has shown us that tennis can be beautiful again and how successful a well-executed all-court game can be, while Nadal reminded us how far good old-fashioned grit and guts can take you. All the best players brought us something special and took the game to another level.

That's another reason why the present crop of Next Gen players will not dominate,  None of them bring anything new to what we are presently seeing with all the other players each week, and why we should wait a little longer for the game's next iconic player to emerge from the shadows.